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Post by ocmmafan on Jan 15, 2019 12:16:31 GMT -5
What do you think? Both markets generally move through cycles and both seem overdue for a correction based on historical trends. We have the fed threatening with interest rate hikes which obviously have a huge influence on both markets.
Is this the year we see a correction? Thoughts on the markets overall?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2019 14:31:33 GMT -5
Right now the market seems to have deflated due to pessimism about the power struggle in Washington, the issues with China, and the interest rate talk. It seems unlikely that those 3 situations will get worse over the next 18 months. Inflation is zero, unemployment is low, earnings are solid.
If trump and China can come to some sort of long term deal, the government shutdown ends with a wall in return for something the democrats want, and the fed holds things still... I could see a good year for the market. The problem is that investors don’t like it when the Democratic Party keeps talking about raising taxes.
Real estate is such a local issue it is difficult to even have an opinion. My area lost 10% of the houses is a fire last year, so we will be booming for a while, but areas of the country that are not as desirable to live in could easily see major declines of demand and lowering prices if the market doesn’t go back up significantly.
I am generally very optimistic about the economy right now. There has been tremendous investment over the last few years in private sector infrastructure, which means more jobs and larger future sales figures. I don’t see how China wins the battle over trade with us if trump digs in, and just a 20% change in their trade imbalance will be massive for our economy.
I think the wildcard is what the presidential and congressional races look like a year from now. If the Democratic Party looks like they will get the presidency and the congressional majority in 2020, I think businesses will hide money and not opt for growth type of investment (like they did for 8 years with Obama).
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Post by locogato11283 on Jan 15, 2019 16:34:08 GMT -5
It’s a win win for me so I don’t really care much.
If interest rates are down, people build houses, which brings me work.
If interest rates are up, people rent, which brings me tenants.
Either way, I’m golden.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 17, 2019 13:31:42 GMT -5
Rent's spiked so much in my area this last cycle that I don't know how low the prices for rental income property would get if we were to crash. Since rental rates don't lower around here in the exception of drugs or gangs coming through the area, unfortunately I don't see it dropping too much. Single family homes I can see taking a hit, but even then, I feel the demand will still be there for those that can afford it.
Personally, I'd LOVE to see a serious housing market crash hit. That's when my clients pick up stuff, they typically don't buy in high markets like the one we have right now unless something special comes along.
I started working a lot near where the new L.A. stadium is being built. The place was a shithole for so many decades, now it's the hottest spot in L.A. for purchases for future airbnb's.
I don't know too much about the stock market, so can't really predict that. I do think the steam has left crypto though, don't think that is going to spike back.
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Post by vegeta420z on Jan 19, 2019 8:26:37 GMT -5
Rent's spiked so much in my area this last cycle that I don't know how low the prices for rental income property would get if we were to crash. Since rental rates don't lower around here in the exception of drugs or gangs coming through the area, unfortunately I don't see it dropping too much. Single family homes I can see taking a hit, but even then, I feel the demand will still be there for those that can afford it. Personally, I'd LOVE to see a serious housing market crash hit. That's when my clients pick up stuff, they typically don't buy in high markets like the one we have right now unless something special comes along. I started working a lot near where the new L.A. stadium is being built. The place was a shithole for so many decades, now it's the hottest spot in L.A. for purchases for future airbnb's. I don't know too much about the stock market, so can't really predict that. I do think the steam has left crypto though, don't think that is going to spike back. Wait what drugs and gangs in your neighborhood? That's impossible because you live in a black neighborhood, And you tell us all the time the blacks are Tolly Tolly non violent non aggressive non gang banging non drug dealing people I'm so confused scratches head. Oh you must be talking about all those white gangsters in those white neighborhoods huh? PS fuck U bitch
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Post by jamesod on Jan 19, 2019 10:57:05 GMT -5
What do you think? Both markets generally move through cycles and both seem overdue for a correction based on historical trends. We have the fed threatening with interest rate hikes which obviously have a huge influence on both markets. Is this the year we see a correction? Thoughts on the markets overall? JFC I hope 2018 was the correction and that a bigger correction isn't coming in 2019. Dow was down 5.6% in 2018, the worst year it had since the great recession. [Some perspective, though - the market was up 25% in 2017, the best year since 2013, so some correction in 2018 wasn't exactly a shock] My best guess, and that's all it is, is that this year ends somewhere between down 2% and up 3%. The tariffs are a real problem for a lot of businesses. I think by far our best bet to see gains of over 3% in the market is if the tariffs get lifted very soon. But that doesn't seem to be the administration's focus right now. I had a decent amount of cash to invest a couple of weeks ago. I chose an 18 month CD at guaranteed 2.75% rather than the market. Hoping that was the right move.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2019 11:25:15 GMT -5
Rent's spiked so much in my area this last cycle that I don't know how low the prices for rental income property would get if we were to crash. Since rental rates don't lower around here in the exception of drugs or gangs coming through the area, unfortunately I don't see it dropping too much. Single family homes I can see taking a hit, but even then, I feel the demand will still be there for those that can afford it. Personally, I'd LOVE to see a serious housing market crash hit. That's when my clients pick up stuff, they typically don't buy in high markets like the one we have right now unless something special comes along. I started working a lot near where the new L.A. stadium is being built. The place was a shithole for so many decades, now it's the hottest spot in L.A. for purchases for future airbnb's. I don't know too much about the stock market, so can't really predict that. I do think the steam has left crypto though, don't think that is going to spike back. Wait what drugs and gangs in your neighborhood? That's impossible because you live in a black neighborhood, And you tell us all the time the blacks are Tolly Tolly non violent non aggressive non gang banging non drug dealing people I'm so confused scratches head. Oh you must be talking about all those white gangsters in those white neighborhoods huh? PS fuck U bitch It's not a surprise you didn't understand a word I said. Too much gay for stay for ol Veg.
I KNOW you know what that means lol.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2019 11:26:16 GMT -5
What do you think? Both markets generally move through cycles and both seem overdue for a correction based on historical trends. We have the fed threatening with interest rate hikes which obviously have a huge influence on both markets. Is this the year we see a correction? Thoughts on the markets overall? JFC I hope 2018 was the correction and that a bigger correction isn't coming in 2019. Dow was down 5.6% in 2018, the worst year it had since the great recession. [Some perspective, though - the market was up 25% in 2017, the best year since 2013, so some correction in 2018 wasn't exactly a shock] My best guess, and that's all it is, is that this year ends somewhere between down 2% and up 3%. The tariffs are a real problem for a lot of businesses. I think by far our best bet to see gains of over 3% in the market is if the tariffs get lifted very soon. But that doesn't seem to be the administration's focus right now. I had a decent amount of cash to invest a couple of weeks ago. I chose an 18 month CD at guaranteed 2.75% rather than the market. Hoping that was the right move. With everything so volatile right now, I'd take that 18 month guarantee in a heartbeat.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2019 4:14:30 GMT -5
I would be shocked if 2.75% was a good move 11 months from now. You could have bought almost any stock at a 10%+ discount of its 2018 high last month, and I would bet we see the djia hit a new high by the end of this year.
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Post by locogato11283 on Jan 20, 2019 16:20:54 GMT -5
2.75%? Fuck that. I wouldn't even waste my time. Bank gets your money, gets to make a bunch of money off it and shit on you in the process. Fuck that shit.
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Post by jamesod on Jan 21, 2019 11:53:21 GMT -5
2.75%? Fuck that. I wouldn't even waste my time. Bank gets your money, gets to make a bunch of money off it and shit on you in the process. Fuck that shit. Y'all have some really kinky banks in Cali.
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Post by locogato11283 on Jan 21, 2019 13:01:29 GMT -5
Haha. I’m nowhere near CA.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2019 18:05:28 GMT -5
Loco couldn't handle it in California... he'd see a couple dudes sticking their tongues down each others throats and would be in prison.
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Post by locogato11283 on Jan 21, 2019 20:33:01 GMT -5
Loco couldn't handle it in California... he'd see a couple dudes sticking their tongues down each others throats and would be in prison. Gays don’t bother me. It’s the fucking liberals that I couldn’t deal with.
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Post by vegeta420z on Jan 22, 2019 1:05:23 GMT -5
Wait what drugs and gangs in your neighborhood? That's impossible because you live in a black neighborhood, And you tell us all the time the blacks are Tolly Tolly non violent non aggressive non gang banging non drug dealing people I'm so confused scratches head. Oh you must be talking about all those white gangsters in those white neighborhoods huh? PS fuck U bitch It's not a surprise you didn't understand a word I said. Too much gay for stay for ol Veg.
I KNOW you know what that means lol.
course I know what you mean. You mean that some fag named Erick Is so desperate for attention and approval that he'll say anything on the Internet just so a bunch of people like and except him. Well like most things in life crack baby you failed. I'M GONNA be the nigger man oops auto correct, the bigger man and im gonna help us out you know drop a little knowledge on you to help you out. I know you're only pretending to like football so that all your black friend Jamal will like you and think you're cool and you just found out That "your team" made the super championship nfb errr ummm I mean NFL super champion series world final. And your going they throw lots of homeruns through the hoop or something, but don't get to caught up in the details of how the game is played or scored ( you'll just expose your self for the desired you are). So instead just find some one in the bar wearing a ram's Jersey ( I'm sure there's a lot of ramming going on in the bars where you hang out but focus)
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Post by vegeta420z on Jan 22, 2019 2:21:02 GMT -5
Instead show them that even though you don't have black DNA other than the stuff dribbling down your chin. That you care about black lives matter. You Can ydo this by giving the black lives matters salute during the national anthem.
It's easy throw your hand straight out in front of you in the air and yell zeig heil (it's African for I love black people) I'll find you a video and I'll post it all over the forums and you can watch it again and At work
Also if you want some additional street credit you know convinced the boys that you're a football fan, Tell them you are a member of the arian nation or the arian brotherhood these of course are fan clubs for Arian foster and Arian springs both football players.
They will all Be wowed by your extensive Football knowledge.
And someone at the ramrod might just take you home instead of one of those younger tight ends ( football reference, you wouldn't get it just laugh and nod your head)
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2019 19:31:23 GMT -5
Only one of us likes hanging out in a men's prison on a regular basis.
Meanwhile...no pittie's allowed over here buddy.
Try not to get too upset.
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Post by vegeta420z on Jan 23, 2019 8:19:16 GMT -5
Only one of us likes hanging out in a men's prison on a regular basis. Meanwhile...no pittie's allowed over here buddy. Try not to get too upset. So you still go to the prisons to see if you can find your birth Mother? How's that working out for you? I don't want an answer actually, I know the answer that cunt went splitsville As soon as she saw the ugly little piece of SHIT that fell out of her dirty fuckings Rotten snatch. But you were never really going there to find your mom anyways Were you? You're gone there to suck big black cock, And get your dirty Asshole's fucked by Tyrone and the boys. I get it now though I understand why you're upset with me. I promised you a video and I forgot to post it, my bad. Here you go this will really impress tyreke, He gonna be like man that white boy that I'm so Shoving my BBC in he show do know the black man's plite.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2019 10:18:59 GMT -5
Tldr, but cool story.
Next time you are going through processing...remember this post. I know you will.
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Post by vegeta420z on Jan 24, 2019 2:49:08 GMT -5
Tldr, but cool story. Next time you are going through processing...remember this post. I know you will.
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Post by ocmmafan on Jan 24, 2019 9:47:13 GMT -5
What do you think? Both markets generally move through cycles and both seem overdue for a correction based on historical trends. We have the fed threatening with interest rate hikes which obviously have a huge influence on both markets. Is this the year we see a correction? Thoughts on the markets overall? JFC I hope 2018 was the correction and that a bigger correction isn't coming in 2019. Dow was down 5.6% in 2018, the worst year it had since the great recession. [Some perspective, though - the market was up 25% in 2017, the best year since 2013, so some correction in 2018 wasn't exactly a shock] My best guess, and that's all it is, is that this year ends somewhere between down 2% and up 3%. The tariffs are a real problem for a lot of businesses. I think by far our best bet to see gains of over 3% in the market is if the tariffs get lifted very soon. But that doesn't seem to be the administration's focus right now. I had a decent amount of cash to invest a couple of weeks ago. I chose an 18 month CD at guaranteed 2.75% rather than the market. Hoping that was the right move. I hope you're right and the 2018 dip was the historical correction pattern. We did see some good news recently with the Fed now suggestion they won't raise rates again this year and may lower them in 2020. The shutdown doesn't seem to be having an impact and this China news seems to go back and forth, so with earnings remaining strong hopefully 2019 is positive.
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Post by jamesod on Jan 24, 2019 11:39:06 GMT -5
I think we're going to see that the shutdown is going to have an impact soon. We're already seeing it with airline stocks. I think we'll see other industries having issues as well.
Speaking for my company, the trade war with China is a huge problem. It's killing us and others that import products from China. When you're paying 10-25% on your imports, your profit margins go to shit. And your stock value follows suit. You can only pass so much of that on to consumers and demand so much in concessions from your suppliers.
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Post by MMAJim on Jan 24, 2019 13:29:31 GMT -5
Our company is on the brink of pretty dark days if the SBA does not get back up and running soon. Delays on construction projects with federal funding, or direct federal construction project interruptions will start create a lot more pain for general contractors, all of their subs and suppliers, and their bonding companies. We're number one on the second list.. which also unfortunately means we will probably be most heavily affected. Sidebar, a large portion of the SBA Business that flows through the #1 Surety on the first list, is through us as well. www.sba.gov/about-sba/sba-newsroom/press-releases-media-advisories/sba-names-most-active-surety-partners-fy17
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Post by locogato11283 on Jan 24, 2019 14:06:39 GMT -5
I have a tenant that hadn’t received his VA benefits since this shit started. So now he’s late with rent. That’s about as far as it’s affected me.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2019 18:19:25 GMT -5
I think we're going to see that the shutdown is going to have an impact soon. We're already seeing it with airline stocks. I think we'll see other industries having issues as well. Speaking for my company, the trade war with China is a huge problem. It's killing us and others that import products from China. When you're paying 10-25% on your imports, your profit margins go to shit. And your stock value follows suit. You can only pass so much of that on to consumers and demand so much in concessions from your suppliers. Is your competition able to offer a non-Chinese product that you cannot? Wondering why you can’t find an alternate supplier or raise your prices if there isn’t a competitive alternative? I am seeing a bunch of my products going up that are from China, but competitors are jumping in quick to get market share since they don’t have to deal with the tariffs
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Post by jamesod on Jan 26, 2019 9:13:00 GMT -5
I think we're going to see that the shutdown is going to have an impact soon. We're already seeing it with airline stocks. I think we'll see other industries having issues as well. Speaking for my company, the trade war with China is a huge problem. It's killing us and others that import products from China. When you're paying 10-25% on your imports, your profit margins go to shit. And your stock value follows suit. You can only pass so much of that on to consumers and demand so much in concessions from your suppliers. Is your competition able to offer a non-Chinese product that you cannot? Wondering why you can’t find an alternate supplier or raise your prices if there isn’t a competitive alternative? I am seeing a bunch of my products going up that are from China, but competitors are jumping in quick to get market share since they don’t have to deal with the tariffs As I said, there is some passing of the cost of the tariffs on to customers (i.e., raising prices). But these aren't essential goods. If prices go too high, the customers will put off purchases indefinitely. As to finding an alternate supplier, I'm not in supply chain but my understanding is that's easily a six-month process for each item you're trying to move. You can't just trust some supplier to comply with all state and federal regulations on what they're supplying you. You have to audit their process at each of their manufacturing facilities, test every product, etc. And we sell to big box stores, each of which has its own requirements for testing products in some cases. Remember too, we've spent decades finding the best suppliers - a combination of consistently good products and cheap costs. There just aren't comparable suppliers out there - if there were, we would have been using them. Moving to a new supplier, even a good one, always comes with uncertainty and increased costs as you iron out any kinks in the operation. My company is approaching 10B in sales across many different companies we own. We probably import tens of thousands of different items from China. Our CEO has instructed people to literally abandon all continuous improvement projects and focus all efforts on attempting to either obtain significant concessions from current suppliers or find other suppliers. But there's a balancing act. Do you really move such a massive supply chain operation out of China when those tariffs might end in one month? In six months? In a year? Business hates uncertainty and there's a lot of uncertainty around this.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2019 11:48:59 GMT -5
Glad shutdown is over, have had a few renters that work for the gov't not get paid so I was under the impression I was going to be short this coming 1st of the month from my rental units.
I'm with Kyle on the "why the fuck do people insist on relying on those pay checks and can't seem to save anything" tip. Because if I was to be short this month, I would be dipping into savings to cover it. Can't be put in the position where 1 check will make or break you. Imagine the stress that would cause?
On a side note, Trump looks like one goofy fuck, shutting things down, threatening emergency funds and now just bowing in to the media. To think, we could have had Rand Paul.
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Post by vegeta420z on Jan 26, 2019 18:12:09 GMT -5
Glad shutdown is over, have had a few renters that work for the gov't not get paid so I was under the impression I was going to be short this coming 1st of the month from my rental units. I'm with Kyle on the "why the fuck do people insist on relying on those pay checks and can't seem to save anything" tip. Because if I was to be short this month, I would be dipping into savings to cover it. Can't be put in the position where 1 check will make or break you. Imagine the stress that would cause? On a side note, Trump looks like one goofy fuck, shutting things down, threatening emergency funds and now just bowing in to the media. To think, we could have had Rand Paul. There you go licking Kyle's ass hole again. "Kyle is me lil orphan Eric please give me your approval, see i'm a pussy libtard but look I agreed with you" Oh yeah and Nigger nigger nigger nigger nigger nigger
Golly gee Eric what kind of sites do you visit while your at work?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2019 21:14:35 GMT -5
The tariffs really hurt us in the metal industry.
Aluminum hurt more than steel. When they stopped importing Chinese aluminum, there was not enough to meet demand. China provides somewhere in the neighborhood of 60% of the world's aluminum. And the American mills are already at capacity, and they only want to make the good, expensive aluminum that companies like Ford use.
For an example, 18 months ago we would paid about $400 for a 4' x 12' x 3/8" thick sheet of aluminum. Today it's about $600. Lead times on mill runs also went from 5-6 weeks to about 8-10 weeks.
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Post by verbal0knit on Jan 30, 2019 21:33:21 GMT -5
Glad shutdown is over, have had a few renters that work for the gov't not get paid so I was under the impression I was going to be short this coming 1st of the month from my rental units. I'm with Kyle on the "why the fuck do people insist on relying on those pay checks and can't seem to save anything" tip. Because if I was to be short this month, I would be dipping into savings to cover it. Can't be put in the position where 1 check will make or break you. Imagine the stress that would cause? On a side note, Trump looks like one goofy fuck, shutting things down, threatening emergency funds and now just bowing in to the media. To think, we could have had Rand Paul. We just had an illegal alien go on an old lady killing spree here where I live. I read a story a few weeks back where an illegal murdered 3 people right after being released from custody due to sanctuary laws. How would you and rand paul go about stopping the violence that the illegal alien population commits?
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