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Post by MMAJim on Nov 5, 2018 12:21:31 GMT -5
Can we get serious here. I mean, I'm going to be out on the street handing out Vote Yes! for some park upgrades in my city, but I'll be damned if I'm not tuning into see the fake-apocalypse. Regardless of what happens, WWMEdia will paint a radical picture of what it means for the country. Either a repudiation of Trump (no matter how slim the house victory for Team Blue would be) or a total validation of Trump (regardless of how narrowly Team Red held the senate and house). Either mass obstruction and dramatic 'inquiries' and the spector of a house impeachment (blue house), mass protest-riots and potential for violence (double red hold).
Can we start with some predictions, both in results Tuesday night, and repercussions afterward.
I predict that whether or not there is a 1, 2 or 0 republican controlled pieces of congress, there will not be MAGA-rioters in the street.
The easy/safe prediction is Senate Red, House barely blue.
I think it'll be a Senate hold, and a House delay for several days for recounts and bickering. Probably razor thin blue by sometime next week.
I'll also safely predict immense hyperbole in commentary tomorrow night.
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Post by verbal0knit on Nov 5, 2018 12:49:00 GMT -5
Based on all the recent pictures I've seen, the Republicans are having a much stronger head count and turnout out at their political rallies than the Democrats are having.
Reports are saying that Obama and other dems have been offering cash to attend their rallies.
So based on that I'm thinking the Republicans maintain majority control. Although I'm sure there's gonna be HEAVY voter fraud in terms of more votes tallied than registered voters, so anything can happen. Maybe the dems will successfully rig the election this time around and then they'll finally have enough power to Npeach Drumpf.
But my prediction is that the Republicans keep power and then the deep state makes good on James Cromwell's promise...
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Post by MMAJim on Nov 5, 2018 12:59:19 GMT -5
I have seen some 'reports' about attendance at rallies, but I haven't 'verified' that.
Also unverified, my co-worker in our PHX office has continuously said that McSally is a lock for that Senate seat. He says (unverified) that she has a 10% advantage on early voting. His current McSally win guarantee is 93.475%.
For whatever all that is worth.
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Post by andrewk1988 on Nov 5, 2018 16:00:30 GMT -5
My prediction is the equal yet opposite effect from 2016. Republicans will point to polls and say they have things locked up, and then be shocked tomorrow night by a few seats.
Irony will continue to prevail in what should be a serious system.
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Post by MMAJim on Nov 5, 2018 16:32:48 GMT -5
My prediction is the equal yet opposite effect from 2016. Republicans will point to polls and say they have things locked up, and then be shocked tomorrow night by a few seats. Irony will continue to prevail in what should be a serious system. I think the general consensus on 'the polls' is actually that the Dems have the House locked up, just a matter of margin and that the Repubs likely will hold the Senate. At least in my opinion that would be the baseline. If I'm allowed to create the baselines. Original Blue Wave = Blue Senate win of any kind and House win with room to spare Regarded as new expectation by 'media' = Repubs barely hold Senate, Dems win convincingly (I'd say in June, that Repubs would have taken this result as a win) Red (insert some cool name) = Gain a couple of seats in Senate, Hold House by 1 or more Added interests, did far left Dems win or centrist Dems, governor races, and how will MSNBC rate Senate increase and close House win for Dems? I guess you could also add, will DJT tweet something regrettable regarding Senate/House results prematurely? Also, I want to add in here that we also have to consider that mid-terms generally do see a turnover against the incumbent president's party. I know typical numbers have been cited in articles I have read, but I'm I don't have them on hand. That would be a nuance part of discussing the results. How much Dem-Win would constitute a win more substantial than a typical opposing party win.
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Post by slaytan on Nov 5, 2018 16:54:30 GMT -5
The only surprise would be a blue wave. I could envision a red wave, but not a blue one. If the dumbs take the house, I guess I wont be surprised based on history and the sheer amount of money being spent. Here in FLorida, it's hard for me to actually envision Andrew Gorillam actually winning. If he does, it's due to the influx of low IQ Puerto Rican refugees from the hurricane. If DeSantis wins by less than a full % point, I expect the dumbocrats to make a stand in FL and try to steal the election Al Franken style
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Post by Deleted on Nov 6, 2018 12:11:32 GMT -5
R's see China, R's see Iran. D's see white guys and say we are all in the Klan.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 6, 2018 14:24:34 GMT -5
A democrat hasn't won the governorship in twenty years here in Florida Garth. It's not about to happen today, either. For as divided as this state tends to be in Presidential elections, they've proven that they'll elect Republican governors most of the time.
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Post by MMAJim on Nov 6, 2018 15:41:27 GMT -5
Quick, baseline update, everyone's favorite Nate Silver states that for a President with an approval rating in the low 40's, losing about 37 seats in the House is about average.
"Trump is no longer a historical outlier — other presidents have entered the midterms with approval ratings in the low 40s. But midterm losses average about 37 seats for unpopular presidents, almost exactly what we’re forecasting for Democrats."
So Dem pick-up of 37 would be an average night for Democrats, just to give it some kind of perspective, according to Silver.
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Post by CaveBearOG on Nov 6, 2018 15:41:28 GMT -5
I voted straight Republican simply due to the all the bullshit libs have done over the last 2 years, its as simple as that.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 6, 2018 17:13:45 GMT -5
I really hope that the problem with polling continues in this election. I'm pretty sure they still do most of the polls by landline, which is Antiquated and retarded. I might be wrong about that though.
But if I'm not, Nate silver, one of the morons who was most wrong on with the last election night, it's going to prove to be the same as he was on the last election night.
The little old ladies at my local voting spot all mentioned that this was the biggest turnout for a midterm election any of them had ever seen.
I honestly do not believe that Trump hatred drives these numbers. I think a lot of people who were there voting were there because they were sick of all the bullshit the left has pushed for the last 2 years.
I could be totally wrong about that as well. But I'm not so sure that I am, I think a lot of people are secretly very happy with the direction to country is going in and showed up to make sure that we continue moving in that direction.
Fuck your social causes, fuck your social justice, fuck your bullshit Healthcare Solutions, and fuck the Caravan, and fuck China.
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Post by ocmmafan on Nov 6, 2018 17:47:56 GMT -5
for every andrew type hate monger out there claiming Trump ruined the country, there are 5 members of the silent majority thinking "nope". The democrats have the dead vote and the illegal vote which might be important for these midterms, but Trump rallys continue to dwarf by 10x anything the radical liberals put together. Hard to believe anything related to polling by the colluding media.
The liberal platform is what? I'm seriously asking. The platform I can see is "Trump is a racist, rich people are bad and you need to pay more taxes while we make shit free for people". That is the proud platform that attracts voters??
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Post by ocmmafan on Nov 6, 2018 19:15:02 GMT -5
"neutral" rueters claiming fake Mexican Beto a "winner" even if he loses. Yeah, they are unbiased.
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Post by andrewk1988 on Nov 6, 2018 23:26:37 GMT -5
"neutral" rueters claiming fake Mexican Beto a "winner" even if he loses. Yeah, they are unbiased. You completely made that up or based it on an "is winning" post on some social media. I've been following their headlines all evening and the only one about the real Mexican vs fake was announcing a close win for the real one.
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Post by ocmmafan on Nov 7, 2018 0:32:56 GMT -5
They tweeted it, moron. This "neutral" media source decided to spin the narrative that even if he loses, he wins. Why? Because that's their candidate and they are a liberal propaganda machine. Reuters Top News Verified account @reuters 9h9 hours ago Win or lose, Beto O’Rourke set to emerge victorious. Follow #Midterms2018 coverage here: reut.rs/2JArLf1 pic.twitter.com/LXOxA0Kfwu
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Post by ocmmafan on Nov 7, 2018 0:34:24 GMT -5
Also, how about neutral MSNBC? Egg on face after televising that shitbag liberal in Florida won YESTERDAY and yet, he lost. LOL. Fair and balanced!
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Post by andrewk1988 on Nov 7, 2018 5:11:44 GMT -5
They tweeted it, moron. This "neutral" media source decided to spin the narrative that even if he loses, he wins. Why? Because that's their candidate and they are a liberal propaganda machine. Reuters Top News Verified account @reuters 9h9 hours ago Win or lose, Beto O’Rourke set to emerge victorious. Follow #Midterms2018 coverage here: reut.rs/2JArLf1 pic.twitter.com/LXOxA0Kfwu I guess I misunderstood what you were saying with the headline. I should have known you just had your little panties in a bunch over them not cheering your favorite politicians. What a fucking crybaby of a post.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2018 7:41:09 GMT -5
for every andrew type hate monger out there claiming Trump ruined the country, there are 5 members of the silent majority thinking "nope". The democrats have the dead vote and the illegal vote which might be important for these midterms, but Trump rallys continue to dwarf by 10x anything the radical liberals put together. Hard to believe anything related to polling by the colluding media. The liberal platform is what? I'm seriously asking. The platform I can see is "Trump is a racist, rich people are bad and you need to pay more taxes while we make shit free for people". That is the proud platform that attracts voters?? It attracts the shit bags... That's a good chunk of voters.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2018 7:57:43 GMT -5
Trump kept the Senate, so all the libtard dreams of impeachment have been destroyed.
I don't think the ballots are done being counted. But it appears any majority they have in the house is not going to be very significant.
Definitely a victory for a sitting president because of a couple things. The first being that this is only the second time in 30 years that a sitting president has kept control of the Senate. That's not all that significant other than being a nice little accomplishment.
The real reason this is a victory is that it's the Senate that confirms Supreme Court Justices.
So, the chances of RBG being replaced by a trump appointee remain pretty high. That is an excellent thing for the country.
I've got a lot more stories to read and I think there's more ballots that need to be counted before we're going to have a very clear picture of what the house looks like when the dust settles. But I don't think the Democrats carved out any kind of significant majority last night.
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Post by slaytan on Nov 7, 2018 8:33:30 GMT -5
They tweeted it, moron. This "neutral" media source decided to spin the narrative that even if he loses, he wins. Why? Because that's their candidate and they are a liberal propaganda machine. Reuters Top News Verified account @reuters 9h9 hours ago Win or lose, Beto O’Rourke set to emerge victorious. Follow #Midterms2018 coverage here: reut.rs/2JArLf1 pic.twitter.com/LXOxA0Kfwu I guess I misunderstood what you were saying with the headline. I should have known you just had your little panties in a bunch over them not cheering your favorite politicians. What a fucking crybaby of a post. the only crybaby post is this one^ “I called you a liar, wrongly, and booo hooo you rebuked me” As to tony: I disagree that it was s good night for Trump. He’s the quarterback who threw for 500 yards and 5 touchdowns with a perfect passer rating but his team still lost by a missed FG. This is bad. There are silver linings but it was a bad night. That Andrew Gorillum got more than 16% of the vote should set off an ominous, off key organ chord.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2018 9:21:22 GMT -5
this is not bad. Even the Washington Post is saying this was a victory for Trump.
Just about every senator who voted against Kavanaugh lost their seat.
Trump is already retaliating with his statement that if the Democrats want to waste taxpayer dollars is doing investigations at the house level that a senate investigation can be conducted with regards to all of the leaks and have been a recurring problem in this Administration.
This is not really that bad at all. The only thing the Democrats can hope to accomplish with this paltry House Majority is ensure a 2020 victory for Trump.
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Post by MMAJim on Nov 7, 2018 9:48:22 GMT -5
Maybe now the House and Senate will have to work together just enough to pass the infrastructure bill that has been talked about and shelved year after year. The breath of fresh air Nancy Pelosi just claimed it as the Democrat's last night, even though they were instrumental in tanking the last push because Trump wanted one. It's the kind of lose/lose that politicians can get behind. They would have to pass it together so they both can simultaneously take credit for the successes and lay blame for the failures.
Also, Minnesotans just voted ourselves a hefty tax increase with our new governor. Way to go assholes.
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Post by ocmmafan on Nov 7, 2018 10:07:57 GMT -5
44 republicans retired from office - had the republicans not had people decide to end their political careers they would still have a majority. But this was a majority that couldn't fucking pass an immigration bill, again. That's disappointing and reflects how few of them actually give a shit.
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Post by johncfc on Nov 7, 2018 12:32:33 GMT -5
I haven't a clue which side can claim victory after last night. To me it seems like either side can twist the results as a win or loss, depending on their interest.
What was interesting to me is that I even heard about the mid-terms. American politics are obviously popular in Canada, but I don't remember anyone ever caring or talking about mid-terms. Most people, including myself, had to look up what they were even for.
I'm sure it has to do with Trump being a polarizing figure, as well as politics being so trendy, especially on social media.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2018 12:40:48 GMT -5
Maybe I'm completely off base here but, the more I think about this the more I think this might actually help Trump a bit with his agenda.
I think like that because a lot of people seem to forget that Trump basically staged a coup within the Republican party and even though the Republicans had a majority, it was majority in name only because a lot of those guys were not going to go along with Trump. Take the dead McCain for example.
The Republicans were not willing to fund the wall, and Trump didn't have anything to really negotiate with to get them to fund it.
But now that the Dems have the house, I think DACA being brought back in exchange for funding the wall is a legit possibility. If the Democrats are actually capable of compromised we might actually see shit still getting done. But I realize I'm putting a lot of faith in a group that has very little ability when it comes to compromise.
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Post by verbal0knit on Nov 7, 2018 13:07:12 GMT -5
Maybe I'm completely off base here but, the more I think about this the more I think this might actually help Trump a bit with his agenda. I think like that because a lot of people seem to forget that Trump basically staged a coup within the Republican party and even though the Republicans had a majority, it was majority in name only because a lot of those guys were not going to go along with Trump. Take the dead McCain for example. The Republicans were not willing to fund the wall, and Trump didn't have anything to really negotiate with to get them to fund it. But now that the Dems have the house , I think DACA being brought back in exchange for funding the wall is a legit possibility. If the Democrats are actually capable of compromised we might actually see shit still getting done. But I realize I'm putting a lot of faith in a group that has very little ability when it comes to compromise. .wishful thinking. The Democrats support open borders and sanctuary states, there's no way they make a deal that jeopardizes the influx of migrants coming into the US from the south. They wont be making any deals regarding immigration control, that's for sure. That's their biggest campaign platform, "America for everyone." The Democrat party hinges on the Hispanic voter and they wont back off their "pro migrant" stance in any way. The mayor of Los Angleles was asked what he plans to do to help the city during the recent homeless crisis and his answer was to put more money into the Latino community. The Democrats need Hispanics the same way Whitney and Bobby needed coke rocks. And I personally wouldn't put any faith at all in a party that financially supports antifa and BLM and then calls for "blood in the streets" when they lose an election.
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Post by ocmmafan on Nov 7, 2018 13:25:32 GMT -5
The democrats main platform is to increase the number of deadbeats that rely on government assistance - the more low IQ, unskilled andrew types the better. That means as much illegal immigration as possible, so hard to see them doing anything that supports the rule of law. But, now that the losers have a temp majority, they will be blamed for refusing to enact immigration policies. They can't have it both ways. The media will protect them and lie, and sheep like andrew will be in here regurgitating those lies, but the silent majority will see through it.
Look at Trump's first press conference from andrew's "neutral" media. Every fucking question is an attack calling him a racist and he stands there and answers questions for an hour. Takes great resolve to do that.
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Post by HumanAgent on Nov 7, 2018 18:42:27 GMT -5
Death to that low IQ, unskilled, caravan loving, mouth breathing, welfare liberal scum Andrew!
That's something we can all agree too!
Cheers 🍻
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Post by slaytan on Nov 7, 2018 19:16:22 GMT -5
Maybe I'm completely off base here but, the more I think about this the more I think this might actually help Trump a bit with his agenda. I think like that because a lot of people seem to forget that Trump basically staged a coup within the Republican party and even though the Republicans had a majority, it was majority in name only because a lot of those guys were not going to go along with Trump. Take the dead McCain for example. The Republicans were not willing to fund the wall, and Trump didn't have anything to really negotiate with to get them to fund it. But now that the Dems have the house , I think DACA being brought back in exchange for funding the wall is a legit possibility. If the Democrats are actually capable of compromised we might actually see shit still getting done. But I realize I'm putting a lot of faith in a group that has very little ability when it comes to compromise. .wishful thinking. The Democrats support open borders and sanctuary states, there's no way they make a deal that jeopardizes the influx of migrants coming into the US from the south. They wont be making any deals regarding immigration control, that's for sure. That's their biggest campaign platform, "America for everyone." The Democrat party hinges on the Hispanic voter and they wont back off their "pro migrant" stance in any way. The mayor of Los Angleles was asked what he plans to do to help the city during the recent homeless crisis and his answer was to put more money into the Latino community. The Democrats need Hispanics the same way Whitney and Bobby needed coke rocks. And I personally wouldn't put any faith at all in a party that financially supports antifa and BLM and then calls for "blood in the streets" when they lose an election. They'll take the "DACA for wall" deal, fully implement DACA, and brazenly break the deal and pull funding for the wall
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Post by slaytan on Nov 7, 2018 19:46:37 GMT -5
So in Florida, 1.5 million felons just got suffrage.
Forget it, we're done. Next president will be Andrew Gorillum
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