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Post by Baph on Nov 1, 2017 22:51:10 GMT -5
What is Clemson's best win?
What is Notre Dame's best win?
What is Alabama's best win?
What is Penn St's best win?
What is Wisconsin's best win?
What is Miami's best win?
There's a whole lotta untested turkey in the top 10. There's 6-7 teams in here without a top 15 win depending on which poll you look at re: Auburn.
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Post by sooner2 on Nov 2, 2017 9:10:29 GMT -5
Yeah. Several of these teams have no top 10 wins. Most but not all will have opportunities to get those.
ND has some top 25 wins over ncst and usc and mich State.
Psu is in trouble. Even winning out will not get them a quality win. Best win could be (surprisingly but justifiably unranked) Michigan.
Bama s best win thus far is unranked txam. Bama will have a chance for some decent wins agaisnt way oberranked (IMO) auburn and lsu and likeky seccg for uga
Wiscy best win is especially tough. Maryland ??
Like i mentioned , its perennial undefeated b10 team who avoids the b10 power teams. Wiscy is quite good I think. I could see them beating Michigan if they played. I could see them beating the September version of Ohio state. And could see them giving psu a solid game too. It’s just one of those b10 oddities in scheduling that we see often ; especially from western teams. No good solutions for that... except going back to “legends and leaders”
Miami is also untested. Miami also has some liabilities in that they have not dominated the teams with less talented rosters. And they had to cancel the opportunity for a decent G5 win agaisnt Arkansas State.
Here’s the thing that I don’t get .... if I honestly assess the s e c this year .... where are the good wins going to come for uga and bama ? The committee has MSU lsu and auburn ranked a bit high. Would they put k state in the teens of k state had been physically dominated and pushed around by Troy; even if they would have had a few wins within the b12 confermce ?
But the cfbpc is judge and jury, and I will admit I am mostly satisfied with their snapshot rankings at this time. It is what it is. Auburn is a 10-15 team accdg to them. No other polls matter.
It usually does sort itself out.
Some big games This weekend. Bedlam has me very very nervous. For OU to have any chance, It would seem they would need to again scrap their 3-4 base like they did in second half of tech game.
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Post by Baph on Nov 2, 2017 10:54:25 GMT -5
Great analysis and discussion in past 3-4 posts.
Follow-up question:
How likely is it, barring a complete meltdown or a shocking loss by a current payoff team, that an outsider, say current #5 through #12, is able to crack the current top 4? I'm not sure how much movement we're really going to see up there.
Rather likely ND and Clem win out. Bama and Georgia win out but one loses a competitive game to the other in the conf championship. These are assumptions but not unreasonable ones. So . . . who drops out?
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Post by ocmmafan on Nov 2, 2017 12:14:50 GMT -5
Lets assume Bama and Georgia are locked in and the one loss is the conf championship. Now we have to figure out if a one loss Big 12 team, an undefeated Wisconsin or a one loss Penn State or Ohio State can leapfrog Notre Dame or Clemson? Interesting.
Miami is the huge unknown in this. I think we all agree that is NOT a legit playoff team, but their ranking could provide a nice boost to Notre Dame and/or Clemson beating them.
I agree Notre Dame is winning out. They will be favored in every game but all 3 will help improve their playoff argument: @ Miami, Navy and @ Stanford. I agree Clemson is winning out. @ NC State (ranked) this weekend, but then play Citadel, @ South Carolina and then the ACC title game vs VTech or Miami.
Others need Virginia Tech to beat Miami this weekend, thus lowering how good Miami is as an opponent for Notre Dame. Conversely, if Vtech beats Miami, that strengthens V Tech which helps Clemson when they rematch. If Bama beats Georgie than has to hurt NDs strength of schedule a little bit, right?
The team with the greatest opportunity to jump them is definitely Oklahoma. They play OSU and TCU back to back, and then get another quality win in the Big 12 title game. if Oklahoma wins out, I do think they might jump Notre Dame or Clemson.
if TCU or Oklahoma State win out, I don't think they jump them.
if Ohio State beats Michigan State, Michigan and defeats an undefeated Wisconsin in the Big 10 title game, I don't see how that gets them in over Notre Dame or Clemson and I don't think they can climb over a one loss Oklahoma.
I don't see any chance for Penn State. They would need Ohio State to lose, beat an undefeated Wisconsin and somehow climb over others? All they have left is Michigan State so I say Penn State is out.
I don't think Oklahoma wins out. BUT, if they do, and they have their road win over Ohio State, and they don't get in? WTF was the point of playing Ohio State on the road? Georgia is getting love for beating Notre Dame out of conference and rightfully so, but OU has to get in over Notre Dame or Clemson with that road win. Clemson has some quality wins, but the worse loss getting beat by Syracuse and the worst loss may be enough to drop them to 5.
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Post by sooner2 on Nov 2, 2017 12:16:49 GMT -5
I do indeed think there can be movement.
If #5 OU wins out, they would have wins on road versus osu and home versus tcu as well as hosting WV and winning a b 12 title game. They would be in. They would have a far better resume than the 2015 ou team who got in; and they would have the tosu win in their cap. That's what gave tosu the edge last year in them getting in over the big 10 title holder.... tosu had the ou road win.
If #6 ohio state wins out they would get in in almost any scenario that could arise. The one scenario that might keep them out would be a win out by ND and Uga and Clemson and ou. Ou would get the edge due to head to head. Uga would get in. Nd would have a solid argument since their only loss would be to playoff bound Uga.
Psu cannot get in imo.
Tcu would have a good argument.
Wisconsin would have the status of being b10 champ; but no marquee wins except the b10 title game. This would put heat on the committee. This however is very unlikely.
Nd has somethings that could work against them. First off ; the committee has shown int eh past that conference titles are at least considered. Not that they have been consistent... but we have seen that they would bump a non conference title game winner in the final poll if big wins arise in the other conf championships. They bumped tcu from 3 to 6. Nd might face this. Would the committee do that to nd? Hard to say. They do have several good wins as of now. But consider that the strength of their wins may diminish some. USC could drop another few. So could Stanford. So could ncst. And the Miami win (if they win) might also lose juice if Miami tanks.
Bama is deceptively tenuous on their route to the play offs. If they win out, they are in. However, if they lose say the iron bowl and lose the seccg they would not be in. I actually think they would not get in if they win out regular season but lose in the seccg. Unless auburn and lsu and miss state play off the charts.... i dont see the cfbpc giving them enough credit for their poor schedule to give them a bid. Thus.... i really dont' think the sec gets two in if bama loses.
If Uga dominates but loses in double overtime to bama in the seccg, i do think that represents the threat of two s e c teams in. I really do not think the committee would do that though. Especially because it was the lsu bama title game that set most of the balls rolling that led to this cfbpc in the first place.
If osu wins out and wins a b12 cg , i do see them having a solid argument. I do not see a 2 loss auburn going undefeated from here on out. Even if they did... i do not think the committee would offer a two loss team a spot. Even if it is their beloved s e c title holder.
Clemson is probably in if they win out, but they; like nd, might lose some juice from their biggest wins if those Teams they beat fall off badly. I agree this in unlikely.
Who else? What about va tech? What are your thoughts on how committee might handle some of these scenarios?
Do you think osu will win out? If they do, do you see most scenarios getting them in? I see them losing once more. Likely in the b 12 cg to unfortunately a two loss foe.
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Post by sooner2 on Nov 2, 2017 12:20:15 GMT -5
Lets assume Bama and Georgia are locked in and the one loss is the conf championship. Now we have to figure out if a one loss Big 12 team, an undefeated Wisconsin or a one loss Penn State or Ohio State can leapfrog Notre Dame or Clemson? Interesting. Miami is the huge unknown in this. I think we all agree that is NOT a legit playoff team, but their ranking could provide a nice boost to Notre Dame and/or Clemson beating them. I agree Notre Dame is winning out. They will be favored in every game but all 3 will help improve their playoff argument: @ Miami, Navy and @ Stanford. I agree Clemson is winning out. @ NC State (ranked) this weekend, but then play Citadel, @ South Carolina and then the ACC title game vs VTech or Miami. Others need Virginia Tech to beat Miami this weekend, thus lowering how good Miami is as an opponent for Notre Dame. Conversely, if Vtech beats Miami, that strengthens V Tech which helps Clemson when they rematch. If Bama beats Georgie than has to hurt NDs strength of schedule a little bit, right? The team with the greatest opportunity to jump them is definitely Oklahoma. They play OSU and TCU back to back, and then get another quality win in the Big 12 title game. if Oklahoma wins out, I do think they might jump Notre Dame or Clemson. if TCU or Oklahoma State win out, I don't think they jump them. if Ohio State beats Michigan State, Michigan and defeats an undefeated Wisconsin in the Big 10 title game, I don't see how that gets them in over Notre Dame or Clemson and I don't think they can climb over a one loss Oklahoma. I don't see any chance for Penn State. They would need Ohio State to lose, beat an undefeated Wisconsin and somehow climb over others? All they have left is Michigan State so I say Penn State is out. I don't think Oklahoma wins out. BUT, if they do, and they have their road win over Ohio State, and they don't get in? WTF was the point of playing Ohio State on the road? Georgia is getting love for beating Notre Dame out of conference and rightfully so, but OU has to get in over Notre Dame or Clemson with that road win. Clemson has some quality wins, but the worse loss getting beat by Syracuse and the worst loss may be enough to drop them to 5. Good, good points. Va tech and miami will have a huge effect on many others.
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Post by ocmmafan on Nov 2, 2017 12:42:10 GMT -5
Bama is deceptively tenuous on their route to the play offs. If they win out, they are in. However, if they lose say the iron bowl and lose the seccg they would not be in. I actually think they would not get in if they win out regular season but lose in the seccg. Unless auburn and lsu and miss state play off the charts.... i dont see the cfbpc giving them enough credit for their poor schedule to give them a bid. Thus.... i really dont' think the sec gets two in if bama loses. If Uga dominates but loses in double overtime to bama in the seccg, i do think that represents the threat of two s e c teams in. I really do not think the committee would do that though. Especially because it was the lsu bama title game that set most of the balls rolling that led to this cfbpc in the first place. Great points about Bama. Should they lose on a neutral field to Georgia, why do they deserve to be in over a one loss Clemson, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Ohio State? All they would have is their win over Auburn. I think Bama has a free pass and plays under a separate set of rules, but they definitely don't have a great argument on paper. I would LOVE to see Bama not get in because they refuse to schedule out of conference road games.
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Post by sooner2 on Nov 2, 2017 13:28:42 GMT -5
Yes; nick doesnt' do true home and homes. Last time he did was to a one legged penn state program. I understand that bama still plays good teams in openers and that its better financially for both schools to do that versus do a true home and home; but i do indeed think that true home and homes are a far better test; and far better for cfb in general.
I really wonder how the cfbpc would handle that. They have to look at resume and rank that way, but they will use eyeball test to settle close differences as well. And at first glance, the bama team looks solid this year. I still question the quality of their opposition though. Look at last year. All we heard about all year was what an nfl style d they had. Held almost everyone to 17 or less and had nearly 14 ppg in scorning from their d. But in the finals game when facing a tough qb and solid offense, they yielded what? 45? I think this year could be more of the same. For all the pre season talk about this being 'the year of the qb" in the s e c... it's pretty putrid on offense throughout.
Committee members are human though.... they want to be right. And shit.... putting bama in the playoffs is more likely to prove them right than wrong; i must admit. I don't think it'll come to that; but it'll be an interesting ride.
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Post by Baph on Nov 2, 2017 13:52:28 GMT -5
Just seeing Bama drop to #2 kind of opens up this whole new world where they're actually under scrutiny and can't slip up. Since FSU imploded and took away their only real opponent of the entire season, Bama's fate rests largely in the continued success, and eventual defeat, of Georgia. Without that, you have merely a Herbstreet eye test against an unranked bum parade, 10 bums long.
I think Miami is going to do something similar to the meteoric fall from grace we got with USC, Stanford, FSU, et al. Frankly it's pretty comical how they've avoided slips ups in the past 2-3 weeks and there's no way that sort of luck continues against VTech, ND, and Pitt. All of a sudden Miami is 9-3 and ranked 21st.
One highly interesting game that a lot of people are overlooking is this weekend's Iowa St @ WVU, which would hurt everyone if ISU loses, and also Texas @ TCU, which similarly would undermine everyone if Texas were to pull that out. We've always said Texas is that team that's a head case, monkeys running the zoo, but they're built to ruin seasons . . . here's an unforseen way to do precisely that, indirectly.
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Post by Baph on Nov 2, 2017 14:59:24 GMT -5
In terms of OKST winning out, I will say almost the same thing I said a year ago at this time: on paper, it's possible, but the ability to shine in those big moments has been elusive for both Rudolph and Yurchich, who very similarly to this year went into the vs. Baylor, vs. OU stretch last year as a top 10 team hunting for a playoff spot, and played horribly losing both games, CLEARLY affected to some degree by the pressure of the moment. Getting beaten by a better team is not what I'm talking about. Folding under pressure and underperforming in the spotlight is what I mean. I have no problem losing by 7 or 10 to an elite team that is "on" that day. But that's not what happened. This is almost a JT Barrett "big game" moment for Rudolph. You have everything you need, including a surprising defense and run game that nobody anticipated 10 weeks ago, but can you lead your troops in battle in those big moments? We know Mayfield can.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2017 12:11:32 GMT -5
Georgia is gonna Georgia and lose to the Yellow Jackets or something silly like that.
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Post by ocmmafan on Nov 6, 2017 10:55:13 GMT -5
We have a HUGE weekend upcoming:
Notre Dame - 2.5 at Miami. Catholics vs Convicts. Georgia - 2.5 at Auburn. TCU + 7 at Oklahoma.
Including spread so you can see how Vegas views these match-ups.
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Post by sooner2 on Nov 6, 2017 11:01:24 GMT -5
Good weekdn of games. Bedlam an offensive display. Over 1000 yds of offense combined. 63!!! First downs. It’s not all due to bad defenses though. These offenses are high caliber and dangerous. I still think that OU is not a national championship threat. I remain skeptical that they can win when they play a solid defensive line stocked team who also can play offense.
Not surprised by psu losing. Am surprised by tosu losing. Anyone think that Meyer might wind up in his next few years at tosu like he did in his his final 2-3 at Florida ? I’m not sure yet. He certainly has more talent at osu now than he did at Florida in 2010 or so.
Was really impressed with Miami. Surprised that nd is favored next week vs them. As good as nd run game is...I don’t see them being able to run against this wild swarming Miami d. Really impressive.
Big question this week will be seeing what they do with 4th spot. OU? Clemson? Perhaps Wisconsin (less likely).
Also intersting to see if they drop isu badly for losing to WV. Or if they wake the fuck in and bump miss state out of top25 after struggling agaisnt the minutemen.
Those of you who want playoff expansion need to hope for this.... nd to win out, uga to win out, bama to win out, and have two loss champs from acc OU winning the b12 , and pac12. B12 won by a 3 loss Michigan team or two loss Ohio state.
In this scenario , the b10 and pac12 get left out. Acc gets in. And very likely OU gets in.
If this happens, the most powerful guy in all of this, Jim Delaney, gets knbthe phone and calls Hancock, and it’s done... 8 team playoff. Five conf champs and three at large.
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Post by Baph on Nov 7, 2017 0:15:53 GMT -5
Agree that much of the Bedlam outburst was not due to poor defense. It's probably the top two offenses in the nation both having good days, super high motivation, and coordinators pulling out all the stops with Heisman, conference, and playoff implications on the line. A true do or die game and it was absolutely electric, even chaotic at times. 1,400 combined yards, 114 combined points, six sacks, 4 pics, 1 fumble, 1 not fumble , and after all that it's a 3 pt game with 60 seconds to go. What a nightmare for a defensive coordinator. Blitz and give up big plays or sit back and let these surgical QBs and solid run games carve you up? Not an enviable position to be in. Big 10 just imploded. So hard to get a read on Ohio St from one week to the next. Miami proved me wrong. After so much struggling and mediocre game play they picked a damn good moment to wake up. Clemson appears to still be limping along at 85%. The Bama eye test continues to suffice against mediocre competition. Will be very curious to see what the committee does with some of this chaos.
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Post by Baph on Nov 7, 2017 11:58:26 GMT -5
Coaches Poll is interesting. Fairly different from both AP and Committee.
Wiscy at 3 ND at 5 Miami at 6 OU down at 7 OKSt drops to 15 Iowa St drops to 23 wow
Are you guys bitter because nobody gives a fuck about your poll anymore?
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Post by sooner2 on Nov 7, 2017 12:08:38 GMT -5
Tricky scenario was posed on finebaum yesterday. Interested to see what you guys thought ought to be done/ and what you thought the esteemed cfbpc would do
Bama 13-0 Georgia 12-1. Oklahoma 12-1 ND 11-1 Clemson 12-1 Wisconsin 13-0.
Tough to judge. For argument's sake; lets assume the p12 champ is 2 or 3 loss USC or 2 loss Washington with no meaningful non con wins.
Weeding through the issues of conference championship clout vs 'best' eyeball test verssu best resume with the biggest wins. ND in this case would have road wins vs Miami and Stanford.
For me... i have always been an advocate of conference champs getting the nod. Ideally, all conf champs would have a well tested schedule, but in the b10, there always seems to be that one team in the west that skates through with a relative lack of danger b avoiding most of the traditional best teams in the east *osu/ u of m/ psu).
I would go the conference title route. I'd say bama. Wiscy. Ou. Clemson.
I think the committee would not put two sec teams in, not with the other teams so close. I think they would go with bama. Ou. Clemson. And nd.
The chaos proponents should root for nd Clemson bama and Georgia in this scenario. If that were to happen i honestly think there would be expansion within two years.
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Post by Baph on Nov 7, 2017 13:10:49 GMT -5
Putting two SEC teams in and thus leaving multiple P5 conf champions out would possibly be a catalyst for even more chaos in terms of the push back for committee transparency or auto-bids, and for expanded playoff spots.
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Post by sooner2 on Nov 7, 2017 13:47:50 GMT -5
Yes. Most would agree that the lsu bama title game debaucle is what led to the formation of our noble committee.
Two s e c teams getting in especially in this year of significant weakness of the s e c would have other conf chairs infuriated.
But the biggest impetus for change would be Jim Delaney having his b10 left out. IMO, He is the most powerful current figure in All of these decisions.
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Post by ocmmafan on Nov 7, 2017 13:50:00 GMT -5
Tricky scenario was posed on finebaum yesterday. Interested to see what you guys thought ought to be done/ and what you thought the esteemed cfbpc would do Bama 13-0 Georgia 12-1. Oklahoma 12-1 ND 11-1 Clemson 12-1 Wisconsin 13-0. Tough to judge. For argument's sake; lets assume the p12 champ is 2 or 3 loss USC or 2 loss Washington with no meaningful non con wins. Weeding through the issues of conference championship clout vs 'best' eyeball test verssu best resume with the biggest wins. ND in this case would have road wins vs Miami and Stanford. For me... i have always been an advocate of conference champs getting the nod. Ideally, all conf champs would have a well tested schedule, but in the b10, there always seems to be that one team in the west that skates through with a relative lack of danger b avoiding most of the traditional best teams in the east *osu/ u of m/ psu). I would go the conference title route. I'd say bama. Wiscy. Ou. Clemson. I think the committee would not put two sec teams in, not with the other teams so close. I think they would go with bama. Ou. Clemson. And nd. The chaos proponents should root for nd Clemson bama and Georgia in this scenario. If that were to happen i honestly think there would be expansion within two years. I think in the scenario described it ends up exactly as you describe but in a different order. Bama #1, Notre Dame #2, Georgia #3 and Oklahoma #4. Maybe Georgia stays 2 if its a tight game with Bama. Undefeated Wisconsin has no way to pass these teams because it would all come down to them winning one conference title game to jump multiple spots? This is actually what i want. An undefeated Wisconsin team and a nationally known awesome program like Clemson being left out will open that expansion door. if TCU beats Oklahoma and wins out, I think they would end up on the outside looking in. Which would be just as much a tragedy as any other great 1 loss program being left out and make for the same argument. The committee may get lucky, AGAIN, and the best 4 teams are readily apparent when teams lose. I hope that doesn't happen but it could. Auburn, Miami and TCU - one of them will probably win this weekend.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2017 14:14:16 GMT -5
Georgia will lose to Tech, ND will lose to Stanford. The committee keeps shit off their pants for another season.
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Post by Baph on Nov 8, 2017 15:53:50 GMT -5
I'd be very surprised by both of those, especially ND to Stanford.
The really spicy meatball here is the prospect of a one-loss, non-conf champ SEC playoff berth, and if Clemson can limp across the finish line and stay in with a bad loss.
Meanwhile OU still has 3 ranked opponents left to play.
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Post by sooner2 on Nov 9, 2017 9:49:26 GMT -5
Rankings this week were a fucking clown show. First week they seemed logical for the most part. They seemed to value big wins then. Especially agaisnt teams also ranked in their top 25.
This week though? Wtf. Who has auburn beaten to hold a 10 spot ? Who as miss state beaten to justify a 16? Did they not watch miss state struggle with u mass at home ?? What has northwestern done to justify a 25?
This weekdn should be huge. Three elimination games.
I think uga beat auburn. Also am being swayed too much bybwhat I saw from Miami last week, but I think they will beat ND.
Am picking tcu to beat OU as they follow the Iowa State template for beating OU. Play tons of zone and make Baker have to dink dunk checkdown his way in small chunks to win. Limit the big gash plays and make OU run the ball. Then kill clock and run the ball in offense and feed the tight end in third down. And pray Kenny thrill hill doesn’t turn the ball over.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2017 9:53:36 GMT -5
I'd be very surprised by both of those, especially ND to Stanford. The really spicy meatball here is the prospect of a one-loss, non-conf champ SEC playoff berth, and if Clemson can limp across the finish line and stay in with a bad loss. Meanwhile OU still has 3 ranked opponents left to play. I'm a ND fan so I always expect the worse. I think it's what we do as fans. And the Georgia thing I mostly just base on the past. Plus they'll be looking ahead to Alabama. I worry about that team being in cruise control here for the next couple of weeks. I don't think they'll have trouble with Auburn since Auburn is ranked, but finishing with kentucky and GT could leave them complacent.
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Post by sooner2 on Nov 9, 2017 12:02:48 GMT -5
Still a bit early to see if Kirby smart will do the annual choke like richt used to do. Wouldn’t quite say it’s a given tha uga will be guilty of annually “georgiaing “. Entirely possible though.
Dabo made a strong case to eliminate the word “clemsoning” from our collective vocabulary in a violent outburst press confermce a few years ago. And to his credit, his team has avoided the badly costly loss or two each year.
Currently, if any annual talented team choking moniker is to be used , the best examples would be “oklahomaing” or “Florida stating”.
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Post by Baph on Nov 9, 2017 14:25:38 GMT -5
Agree, seeing Auburn as the highest ranked 2 loss team in the land just screams SOS building for Bama/UGA. We will see how top 10 they look when Georgia comes into Auburn this Sat and crushes them by 35.
Noticed the committee also pulled some strings to get Bama a nice ranked opponent. Fucking comical. #16 Miss St who already lost to Auburn by 40 . . . . LOL.
TCU @ OU is massive. Typically, TCU has wilted in these games, though they did have an epic clash with their back-up QB in Norman two years ago where a failed 2-pt conversion lost the game by 1 pt. This is a much smarter, more composed TCU than I've seen before, so will be interesting to see how the emotional hangover from Bedlam and playoff implications impact the composure and motivation for both teams. I think I've resolved some of the inconsistency issues I always saw with OU. They are one of those largely emotion-driven teams that plays as well as they have to in order to survive. If you're flat, and it's not a huge game, they play flat, it gets scary close, they rally and beat you by 7 (Baylor, Texas, KState). If you're lit, and the atmosphere is wild, they play bananas and match you blow for blow (Ohio St, OKST). But the common factor in all of these games is that they were close. Only one of OU's past six games has been decided by more than 10 pts (Tex Tech), and they were all nail biters right up until the final few minutes of the game. I think that bodes well for potential playoff game where living and dying in that razor thin margin will be the norm. Some of OU's previous teams have been very dominant in conference and were lost in close blow games and ended up being blown out.
ND @ Miami is also massive, and though I will certainly concede that Miami proved me wrong last weekend, I remain strongly skeptical, particularly of their offensive consistency, and think ND takes a close one here. Miami has just dodged too many bullets this year and it's hard to put that out of my mind. This could easily be a 2 loss team right now. Easily.
Ohio St remains under pressure with Mich St coming to town this Sat and Ohio St looking shakey late in the season.
OKST traveling to Aimes and potentially delivering a 4th loss to Iowa St would be harmful to OU's resume in that same SOS regard, but again, that depends on whether "big wins" or "bad losses" have more impact, and there's not been any clear consistency on how the committee applies that standard. I'm still holding out some goofball hope to wiggle back into a conf title game, which would require some pretty spectacular implosion from TCU or OU. Now, having said that, OU plays #6 on Sat and then travels to WVU. Would be surprising but not impossible to see two more Ls. TCU has @ OU and @ TTU. Would be a bit more surprising to see two Ls there, but road games get dicey and sometimes when you take one hit, that second hit becomes a lot easier to land (emotionally deflated, playoff hopes crushed, another road game). People have clung to far less hope than this and managed to survive the winter. And part of it is, I hope, more than just emotionally-driven fandom, because I genuinely believe that with the emergence of this run game, and a healthy Washington (didn't play final 25 min of Bedlam), OKST might have the best offense in the country, and is certainly top 2-3, and if things are clicking, there are a whoooooole lotta teams in the current top 15 that would not fare well on a neutral field vs OKST right now. I would take anybody in that #8 through #15 cluster and put $50 on it right now, and frankly, you have to get way up to the top 3 teams before I start feeling legitimately outmatched and/or concerned. I'd take another shot at OU or TCU in a heartbeat and feel at least 50/50 about their chances.
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Post by daywork on Nov 11, 2017 19:01:18 GMT -5
Good bye Georgia ...
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Post by daywork on Nov 11, 2017 21:28:54 GMT -5
Umm, Ranked 1, 2 and 3 could all lose today..
What a bad betting day (for me)
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Post by Baph on Nov 12, 2017 0:27:09 GMT -5
Georgia and ND looked terrible. I am shocked. Where did this Miami team come from? An even more "peak at the right time" story than OU. Just . . . wow. Bama looked really flat and unimpressive in a way-too-close game for the first time this season . . . and wow, what a coincidence, they actually played someone (#16) and it's a tied game with under 2 min to go against 7-3 Miss St. And TCU looked pretty bad, too. Granted, OU's 2nd quarter outburst was clearly pretty demoralizing, but TCU just mounted no resistance whatsoever and was completely unable to move the ball for most of the game (6 pts scored in 2nd half between both teams). TCU has now lost 2 of their last 3 games and failed to score more than 24 pts in any of those last 3.
Baker probably locked up the Heisman today. Two really good games in a row vs. top 15 opponents. Peaking at the right time of the season. And can still point to that early Ohio St win. I think that's your new #1. Bama needs to show me more, I'm sorry. They're the new Baylor. Fuck that.
On down the line, #9 Wash loses badly to unranked Stanford, #12 Mich St absolutely destroyed by Ohio St, 48-3.
I was pleased with OKST showing some grit after a very deflating rivalry loss, getting up to Aimes Iowa early on a bitterly cold November morning, and putting up 49 pts against that stingy zone defense, taking a road win against a team that beat both TCU and OU this season. That showed some maturity. I was however extremely disappointed with the commentary, which shows part of the problem with the 4-team playoff system. Once you're statistically out of that top 4, nobody gives a fuck. The commentary sounded like an eulogy for two fallen soldiers (ISU and OSU both just fell from playoff race). But the game was fucking epic, back and forth, high scoring, competitive, huge plays, stellar grabs . . . and it's like nobody could muster up the energy to flip out about this awesome shit going down left and right. Hey, this is a top 15 match-up by teams with an outside shot at a conf championship game and a BCS bowl, it's 49-42, and we've had five lead changes. This is GREAT football. Wake the fuck UP, ESPN.
I think OKST clearly playing better than TCU right now but that won't matter come conf championship time, re: the head-to-head, which, again, is why this is the greatest regular season in any sport. 12 games, and every single one of 'em matters a LOT. You have one weird day, throw a couple bone head picks, lose by 10 at home, you just fucked your whole season and there's usually no way to dig out of it. They'd need TCU to just implode at this point, go lose to Tx Tech, in order to get a Bedlam rematch in the title game. Honestly that's the best scenario for both schools and for the conference as, by then, it's very likely another top 10 match-up (#2 vs #9 maybe).
Will be very curious to see what the esteemed committee does with this mess. If they keep Bama at #1 I'm done.
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Post by daywork on Nov 12, 2017 15:22:23 GMT -5
Oh you better believe Bama will be #1. They were all talking about it yesterday, that with Georgia losing Bama is right back to #1.
I'm guessing
#1 Bama #2 Clemson #3 Oklahoma #4 Miami #5 Ohio St #6 Wisconsin
After I typed that, I thought that they may mix up #3, #4 and #5
I guess we'll see on Tuesday
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Post by Baph on Nov 12, 2017 16:46:23 GMT -5
Why though? Why is Bama ranked ahead of Miami? What possible rationale?
Miami has the same record with much, much bigger wins.
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