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Post by sooner2 on Feb 14, 2017 9:20:59 GMT -5
Big weekend coming up. Key duals pitting b10 schools against the rest of the country.
Key match up will be ok state v penn state.
Both have been ranked 1 or 2 all year. Both undefeated in duals. Penn state has had a rougher schedule. Penn state also has a higher tournament ranking projection. I agree that psu would be predicted to be first in a tourney.
I think psu will won the dual meet lineup agaisnt ok state. Bonus points for psu at several key weights will make this win a pretty wide margained win.
I think okbstate will win 133. 141. 165. 197. And perhaps hwt. However, only real opportunities for realistic bonus for osu will be 133 And possibky 165.
Psu will win 125 with likely bonus. They will win 149 with almost certain bonus. 157 with probable bonus. Perhaps even a pin (blasphemy I know... blasphemy....).
. And I think they definitely win 74 and 84 with even a pin at 84.
I'm saying 26-13 psu.
will try to catch this on flo.
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Post by Baph on Feb 16, 2017 16:35:46 GMT -5
Expect roughly the same in OSU vs PSU this weekend, which I'll be at, btw.
With the HW out for OKST there's just no way to beat PSU. Even with him in the line-up, things would have to go really well, and maybe even get a small surprise somewhere in the meet, either PSU having a guy with an off-day or sick or someone like Crutchmer going berzerk like he did at nationals last year and just owning someone that was supposed to be a toss-up. The talk is that the HW will weight in and suit up, but won't wrestle unless the match is on the line when they get to HW (will start at 125). He's been in a boot all week and there's some issue with his toe, I believe, that's been going on for 2-3 weeks now.
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Post by Baph on Feb 20, 2017 10:21:48 GMT -5
Penn St rolled. Clearly a story of a team peaking early in the season vs a team peaking at tournament time. The dual was not even competitive, despite the misleading 13-0 lead OKST jumped out to. And I've got to say that individually, 3-4 guys on the OKST roster all looked better earlier in the season. Wear and tear, injury, or perhaps some other factors may be at play, but guys looked beaten down yesterday.
The atmosphere is something I've never seen. Over 14,000 people packed into a basketball arena to watch wrestling. Loud, nervous energy, buzzing chatter, music, lights, food, bout sheets . . . looked like a really orange national tournament. Incredible environment in Stillwater yesterday. Can't say I've ever seen anything like that.
At 125 Suriano did something bizarre to his ankle and had to withdraw, so forfeit pts to OKS in a match that they likely would have lost, but definitely would not have won bonus pts in. Unusual looking injury. He just stood up and then froze, and couldn't put weight on his foot afterward. Dead in the water. OKST 7-0.
At 133 Kaid Brock is just monstrous. He would have secured a tech fall if he didn't run out of gas. Kid looks incredible. Fluid, loose, aggressive, creative, and fun. He will likely podium at nationals. OKST 10-0.
At 141 Dean Heil looked like ass, and frankly I thought he was pinned once from a neutral scramble, and he damn near got himself back into the same pickle in the next period. Kid is a physical freak but not the smartest wrestler I've ever seen. He squeeked out a win on pure will power and upper body strength that kept him from paying for bad decisions. OKST 13-0.
At 149 we got a marquee match-up, #1 vs #2, and it all came down to riding time in a frustrating loss. Against Penn St you need to have a couple of these "jump balls" go your way before you get to the meat of their line up, and it just didn't happen. OKST was 1-4 in one point matches yesterday. I've got to say Rutherford (Penn) engaged in some pretty questionable tactics to secure that riding time point, and was warned twice for stalling and Collica (OKST) was awarded a point due to this, but it wasn't enough. OKST 13-3.
At 157 Nolf beat John Smith's kid so bad it was hard to watch. Not sure if there's an underlying illness, chronic injury, or just a brutal weight cut, but Smith from 3-4 months ago beats Smith of today by 10 pts. Dude was slow as molasses and borderline helpless out there en route to a humiliating tech fall. OKST 13-8.
At 165 Joseph ran away with the match late and major'd Rogers, who just couldn't overcome the speed differential. OKST 13-12.
At 174 Hall edged Crutchmer in another frustrating match, another one point loss, in a situation where you needed a senior to step up and make things happen, and not in the final 45 seconds of the match when you're down by one, Kyle. Needed this one and he came close on a couple shots, but just couldn't suck it in. This was a winnable match but also wow, you have to tip your hat to a true freshman coming into that arena and beating a senior in front of 14,000. PSU 15-13.
At 184 Nickal pinned Boyd about 30 seconds into the match and just deflated the stadium. At this point Penn was rolling and that tension from the early deficit has turned into purpose and swagger, like this dual was a stepping stone to a national title, and these kids were SHARP, and most notably, they were quick. PSU 21-13.
At 197 OKST suffered another frustrating, one point loss where we really needed Weigel to get something done and he just couldn't. Interesting to see his opponents choosing neutral starts when given the option, as his riding is elite and he regularly rides out full periods and even turns people for back pts, but without that happening, his mediocre shot game was on full display and in this match you really got the sense that Penn St's scouting and strategy was a notch above OKST's. They were just smarter out there. Not much, but in a one point match, not much is what get's 3s on the board. PSU 24-13.
At HWT, OKST chose to keep their injured HWT out as the meet was now out of reach, and they put the 197 back-up out there, who surprisingly held his own, losing 10-5, but ultimately just couldn't overcome the 50-60 lb weight difference. PSU 27-13.
To be honest this took a lot of starch out of nationals for me, because regardless of Crutchmer and Collica coming up short in toss-up matches, beating this Penn St team, particularly in a tournament where many of these kids are going to rack up bonus pts early in the bracket, is going to be virtually impossible. Even worse, yes . . . worse, is looking at the ridiculous number of freshmen and sophomores on the roster, and getting your mind around the fact that this dynasty isn't going anywhere but up. Well done Mr. Sanderson.
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Post by sooner2 on Feb 20, 2017 10:54:04 GMT -5
Great breakdown. The fucking flo cast was broken down all day yesterday and i have just now finished watching.
Okst would have lost 125, and a 6 point injury win was surprising. Then brock ran out of gas, and should have had a tf.
Heil was indeed pinned twice in scrambles. I kept cringing thinking of the johnny Hendricks scramble pins not called vs the michigan kid in the 2006 ncaa tourney. Heil is possibly the toughest guy to score on in the nation. But dammit!!!! Kid's gotta open up some. Sooner or later he will get burnt. Still... it was a match most predicted okst would win by decision only
149-- colleca really impressed. Retherford is a beast with non stop offense, but colleca slowed him down in a huge way. Two stalling calls away from a win. I figured Zaine would have md or tf'd colleca; even as good as colleca is... zaine has seemed better; far better, all year. So.... after 149... ok state was in this thing, and had a 6. Point win at 125 that i didnt' expect, as well as not giving up bonus to retherford!!! Fuckin a, thought i.... okst is gonna win this thing
Have not been impressed w smith at 157. Indeed very sad to watch. He was broken. Really broken. I do think the injury has likely made it very hard to keep his weight controlled, and dry hard to keep good mat shape. But sill.... Nolf played with him. Played.
Then rogers screws up at 165. Should have pulled the trigger early on when he had his headlock pinch that he loves. Let his guy stick around and win it at the end
174 also a big let down. Great standing O to help get crutch the escape... but he just couldn't score a key td. That's twice hall has beaten him. Hall really kicked his ass at the southern scuffle when he was still red shirting. Hall is seriously tough. His status as the most highly prized HS recruit last year was indeed warranted. I think he will wind up with 2 titles. Just think about the talent in that room that he scraps with daily!!
184 was a pin like i thought. Nickel seems to be an asshole... but damn is he great. Also plays with guys. When the match started with a single leg shot by Boyd, i knew it was gonna be bad news for okst. Nickel baited him
197 again... wiegel is not fun to watch, and seems to be the type of guy who will never finish above 6th at nats. But the psu guy was quite a bit smaller, and i actually thought weigel might win. But he got schooled in the 3rd period
Hwt was a good decision by okst to rest their starter. They will need his points in march to fight ohio state for second place. This psu team is unbeatable in a tournament. The only questions i have out them is i want to see how nickel fares against the cornell kid. But that wont be until late in the event, and nickel will have already racked up three pins probably to really help his team.
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