Post by rovpitviper on Nov 12, 2016 20:21:03 GMT -5
Some things I like:
Don't bet spreads in the NBA, bet totals. If you follow bball at all to where you bet on it then you know who the good offenses are and the good defenses. You know barring the outliers what they are going to be around. Much easier than figuring out if one team is going to come within a certain amount of points on any given night. Just my opinion there, nothing fact based.
Back to backs...love me some action on teams that are supposed to dominate on back to backs, especially after a big rivalry game. For example the Warriors ran roughshod on the Thunder in a HUGE rivalry game and then traveled to LA to take on a young rather inferior Lakers team. And got manhandled. Yes Luke was coaching and knows the Warriors inside and out but the Lakers talent is still no where near the Warriors. But that back to back game (or even a 3rd game as oc mentioned) is a gold mine. The odds makers are aware of it of course, but they have a hard time reducing the odds to the right point because of the talent difference in the league.
Spurs, Cavs, and Warriors. Those are the big 3 teams with all the fire power right now and they can and will ignore the trends mentioned above. So if you are going to bet you take them even as favorites. Or avoid betting on them at all if you are trying to pick upsets. Use the rules above on the mid tier to lower teams and use the back to back rules. Or just go with totals like I do.
Anyways I don't preach any of that as fact but just a quasi system I like to use. I do lose just like everyone else but I do come out ahead on bets each year sticking to those trends. There is no fool proof system that I know of for any sport. So do your research, stick to your system, and don't let your bias kick in. I want Lebron to lose every game he plays because of his franchise hopping so I avoid betting on the Cavs because I know my bias will ruin any card I put together. Personal feelings out, research and trends in and good luck.
Thanks guys, I already bet against teams playing their third game in four nights, or back-to-back road games, etc.
Haven't bet on totals but it's interesting and I'll probably try it.
The Spurs, Warriors and Cavs are good bets anytime, too. Pretty much no-brainers at this point.
I use the "home underdog" concept when setting up a series of Martingale bets (5-bet, four-chase limit, with an exponent of 2.30) which, so far, has yielded small profits with no losses. I'm sure I'll see the other side
of that coin eventually....
Does anyone else use the limited Martingale method?
Last Edit: Nov 19, 2016 15:12:33 GMT -5 by Deleted
I wish I could help. But I can't bet on basketball or baseball to save my life. But then, I haven't watched either in years.
But a universal truth to betting on anything. Don't bet more then you can afford to lose.
Professional handicappers aren't that great. Me and a couple of my friends use 3 different handicappers for NCAA football and NFL. Overall, I don't think its worth the money.
Oh, stay away from live betting. Its fun and all, but you could lose a lot fast LOL
Have fun, and remember. Your favorite team is whoever you have money on that week or day.
I agree that pro handicappers are overrated; I'd never use them as they're wrong 40% - 45% of the time anyway, like even the best gamblers. I doubt many of them are any more well-informed than any avid fan for any particular sport. So far I'm slightly ahead of the break-even mark overall, while betting on NFL games and MMA fights in addition to NBA games, where I'm slightly in the hole.
The one place where professionals (not the assholes on tv) are raping all the regular joes is on the weekly fantasy sites. FanDuel and DraftKings. You can read articles about how 1% of their player base has the whole thing down to a science, and they win the majority of the money every week.
The one place where professionals (not the assholes on tv) are raping all the regular joes is on the weekly fantasy sites. FanDuel and DraftKings. You can read articles about how 1% of their player base has the whole thing down to a science, and they win the majority of the money every week.
I believe the two are going to merge.
Yes. But a lot of it is to them entering max 50 lineups in the multi-entry contests and therefore stacking the odds on their side. If it's a $27 entry with a million dollar prize, I am not willing to spend the $1350 to max my entries while the 'pros' all do. They wisely play a core 4-5 guys and stack different lineups with ancillary players. Tough to sneak in a win when 50 guys go in with 50 lineups each. Football is the toughest for them to win though as so many regular players do have info and tons of research info. MLB and NBA the pros absolutely kill it. It's all mathematical for them where as I think most of us "fans" may install players we like, have on our own fantasy teams, etc. The regular fan is not going to take a deep dive into DOVA ratings, etc, and value per point, and figure out to play Bilal Powell for only $3200. I have been playing since 2012 and am up maybe $1,750 between DK, FD, yahoo and started fantasydraft this year (though I am losing on that site overall). I always play the NFL single entry tournaments for between $3-$15 entry but those will only go up to $10,000 and $25,000 top prizes. My highest win was $400 for $3. I also always play the $25 50/50s with 50 players so top 25 win. It's definitely harder today than 2013. For MLB and NBA I play occasionally but not every day.
One of the best players is Peter Jennings, CSURAM88, and I play him in a $25 NFL head to head every week on fantasy draft (starting week 2) and am currently 5-5 against him. He's a multi-millionaire off daily fantasy but in a single lineup for NFL I'm even with him. It's my own little fantasy championship battle every week, lol. I read a few of their books and have corresponded with him and Jonathan Bales, and they both now make hundreds of thousands off their daily fantasy advice sites. Both say MLB and NBA is where they make the majority of their cash and they win their head to heads at about 80%.
If any of you play DFS, shoot me your user names and I will invite you to our contests. I'm in two leagues with friends in NFL for $5 entry and $20 entry each week, and we do 2-3 NBA contests for $10 each week. We have 15-20 guys.
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